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NTS Bulletin May 2013

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NTS VIEWPOINT

The world’s first ever Arms Trade Treaty: Implications for Southeast Asia

By Pau Khan Khup Hangzo

After seven years of negotiations, the UN finally approved the first ever Arms Trade Treaty by an overwhelming majority. The treaty covers a range of conventional arms, from battle tanks to combat aircraft and small arms and light weapons (SALWs).

The regulation of SALWs in particular could have major implications for Southeast Asia, a region awash with both legal and illegal arms. Private gun possession ranges from 0.5 arms per 100 people in Indonesia and Singapore; to more than 4.0 in Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines; and 15.6 in Thailand.

Significantly, SALWs – pistols, rifles, machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars, and portable anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems – are widely used in armed conflicts. Although SALWs do not by themselves cause the conflicts in which they are used, they exacerbate their lethality. SALWs are also implicated in deaths occurring in non-conflict situations such as gang fights, homicides, suicides and random shootings. In all, SALWs cause an estimated 500,000 deaths worldwide each year.

What is worrying for Southeast Asia is that the region is a source, transit and destination for trafficked arms. On the one hand, ongoing low-intensity armed conflicts in countries such as the Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar continue to fuel demand for sophisticated arms. On the other hand, large stocks of surplus weapons in countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam, a legacy of the Vietnam War, have resulted in the region becoming an important source of illicit weapons for non-state armed groups such as those operating in India.

As such, the Arms Trade Treaty is vital for the region – for establishing standards for weapons sales, and also for ensuring greater oversight over a country’s stock of weapons so as to prevent illegal diversions. Proliferation of arms to non-state armed groups is just one part of the problem. While states have the legitimate right to buy weapons for national security reasons, their unfettered purchase could result in indiscriminate and disproportionate use of force, further inflaming armed conflicts. It is not surprising then that there is increasing support in Southeast Asia for norms and standards for the arms trade, and that a majority of the countries in the region voted for the treaty.

However, the treaty, which attempts to regulate arms transfers to both states and non-state armed groups at the global level, would have limited effectiveness without there also being complementary gun control measures at the national level. Currently, the extent of gun control in Southeast Asia ranges from total control (Brunei, Cambodia, Vietnam) to restrictive control (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Timor-Leste) to highly permissive (Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand). This variation in level of control could stymie regional efforts to regulate SALWs.

As proliferation of SALWs is a transnational issue, regional standards based on complementary national laws are necessary. The Arms Trade Treaty offers an opportunity for countries in Southeast Asia to collectively develop regional standards and norms. Such efforts could in turn help reduce gun violence and improve prospects for negotiated settlements to longstanding internal armed conflicts in the region.

Pau Khan Khup Hangzo is Associate Research Fellow with the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Singapore.

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CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND NATURAL DISASTERS

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Kunreuther, Howard, Geoffrey Heal, Myles Allen et al., 2013, ‘Risk management and climate change’, Nature: Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 5, pp. 447–50.

This article highlights how risk management can inform the sound development and evaluation of climate policies through the use of more robust approaches that are designed to deal with the uncertainties that are pervasive in climate change projections and impact.

Buxton, Abbi, 2013, ‘Responding to the challenge of artisanal and small-scale mining: How can knowledge networks help?’, London: International Institute for Environment and Development.

This article examines the challenges faced by various artisanal and small-scale mining companies worldwide and highlights the prospects of using knowledge networks to overcome these challenges.

Su, Yufang, Jianchu Xu, Andy Wilkes et al., 2012, ‘Coping with climate-induced water stresses through time and space in the mountains of Southwest China’, Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 855–66.

This paper highlights a range of coping strategies to address climate-induced water stresses resulting from erosion control, village water management rules, changes in cropping patterns and new irrigation methods. It argues that not all coping strategies are sustainable and that it is thus important to link short-term strategies with long-term ecological and socioeconomic adaptations.

Events & Announcements

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ENERGY AND HUMAN SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Branosky, Evan, Amanda Stevens and Sarah Forbes, 2012, Defining the shale gas life cycle: A framework for identifying and mitigating environmental impacts, Working paper, Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.

While shale gas could help meet the demand for energy, there are detrimental effects associated with its exploitation and use. This paper provides a balanced, scientifically supported analysis of the implications of adopting shale gas, and suggests ways to control its negative externalities.

Sovacool, Benjamin K. and Vlado Vivoda, 2012, ‘A comparison of Chinese, Indian, and Japanese perceptions of energy security’, Asian Survey, Vol. 52, No. 5, pp. 949–69.

This article investigates how energy security is perceived in Asia's largest energy consuming countries, namely, China, India and Japan. It is based on targeted surveys and statistical analyses. These perceptions have important implications for the countries’ policies and external relations.

Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2013, Asian Development Outlook 2013: Asia’s energy challenge, Manila.

This report reviews economic development in the Asia-Pacific in 2012, provides country-specific analysis and outlines economic trends and prospects. According to the report, ensuring energy security would be a major challenge to continued development in the region.

Events & Announcements

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FOOD SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Dorward, Andrew, 2013, ‘Agricultural labour productivity, food prices and sustainable development impacts and indicators’, Food Policy, Vol. 39, pp. 40–50.

This article argues that discussion of agricultural productivity must also incorporate land productivity and labour productivity. It proposes indicators that measure agricultural development and the impact on economies, land and energy productivity in agriculture, and real food prices relative to real incomes. It notes that such indicators would be useful in evaluating post-2015 goals and targets.

Anderson, Kym, Shikha Jha, Signe Nelgen et al., 2013, ‘Re-examining policies for food security in Asia’, Food Security, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 195–215.

The article finds that trade policy restrictions are generally enacted to deal with short-term food price spikes. Having analysed the market projections to 2030, it argues that existing protectionist tendencies may not be the best way forward and recommends that governments consider other options such as enhancing the efficiency of domestic markets, investing in research and development, and improving communication and transport infrastructure.

Events & Announcements

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HEALTH SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Cheng, June J. and Peter Berry, 2013, ‘Health co-benefits and risks of public health strategies to climate change: A review of current literature’, International Journal of Public Health, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 305–11.

This article highlights the co-benefits as well as the risks that come with health improvements associated with adaptation activities that affect social capital. It discusses the impact on mental health, and touches on misconceptions about health and urban design strategies. It also argues for more research on the unintended positive and negative consequences of public health adaptation activities.

Moon, Suerie and Oluwatosin Omole, 2013, ‘Development assistance for health: Critiques and proposals for change’, Working Group on Financing Paper No. 1, London: Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs) and the Harvard Global Health Institute.

This paper discusses the landscape of development assistance for health (DAH) and highlights problems in the existing system that mirror development aid and health sector issues. It then offers key proposals for reforming the DAH system in the areas of financing, governance and extra-DAH institutions, and provides the criteria for assessing such proposals.

Events & Announcements

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INTERNAL AND CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Jakobsen, Tor Georg, Indra De Soysa and Jo Jakobsen, 2013, ‘Why do poor countries suffer costly conflict? Unpacking per capita income and the onset of civil war’, Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 140–60.

This article examines the relationship between poverty and conflict. The authors apply a combination of statistical and analytical approaches to test the explanatory power of three existing views on the linkage: (1) poverty leads to grievances; (2) income proxies the opportunity cost of rebelling; and (3) income proxies state capacity. The findings support the opportunity-cost explanation.

Human Rights Watch, 2013, ‘All you can do is pray’: Crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims in Burma’s Arakan state, New York, NY.

This report looks at the ongoing sectarian violence between the Buddhist and Muslim communities in Myanmar. It recounts the violent incidents in a chronological order, examines the government’s response, identifies the causes of the unrest and the resulting humanitarian concerns, and provides recommendations for stakeholders. The report draws international attention to the serious human rights abuses taking place.

Events & Announcements

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TRANSNATIONAL CRIME

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Farah, Douglas and Pamela Phillips Lum, 2013, ‘Central American gangs and transnational criminal organizations: The changing relationships in a time of turmoil’, Alexandria, VA: International Assessment and Strategy Center.

In 2012, the US Treasury Department labelled the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) a significant transnational criminal organisation owing to its role in drug trafficking, kidnapping, human smuggling, sex trafficking, murder, assassinations, racketeering, blackmail, extortion and immigration offenses. This report provides insights into the gang’s workings, examining in particular the relationship of the gang to the transnational criminal networks that are growing in strength and sophistication across Central America.

UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), 2013, Transnational organized crime in East Asia and the Pacific: A threat assessment, Bangkok: UNODC Regional Office for Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

This report looks at major transnational organised crime flows relevant to the region. It calls for an integration of national responses with international strategies in order to effectively combat the problem. The UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime and its Protocols, as well as the Convention against Corruption, provide useful platforms for establishing a normative framework to guide efforts towards capacity building and for strengthening regional partnerships.

UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), 2013, Assessment guide to the criminal justice response to the smuggling of migrants, Vienna.

This guide presents an inventory of measures for assessing the legislative, investigative, prosecutorial, judicial and administrative responses to the smuggling of migrants by land, sea and air, for deterring and combating such crime, and for integrating the information and experience gained from such assessment into successful national, regional and international strategies.

Events & Announcements

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WATER SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2013, Asian Water Development Outlook 2013: Measuring water security in Asia and the Pacific, Manila.

This report provides a quantitative and comprehensive view of water security in the countries of Asia and the Pacific. By focusing on critical water issues, it provides leaders with a quantitative tool for assessing water security in the region, with specific recommendations for action.

Werrell, Caitlin E. and Francesco Femia (eds), 2013, The Arab Spring and climate change, A climate and security correlations series, Center for American Progress, February.

The essays in this volume argue that the consequences of climate change are stressors that can ignite a volatile mix of underlying causes and lead to revolution. In the Arab world, climate change will continue to be a threat multiplier – exacerbating environmental, social, economic and political drivers of unrest, including drought, water scarcity, food security and migration – as the countries of the Middle East and North Africa region transition and change.

Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republic of China, 2013, ‘Notification of the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Environmental Protection on issuing the guidelines for environmental protection in foreign investment and cooperation’, 1 March.

These guidelines cover legal compliance, environmental policies, environmental management plans, mitigation measures, disaster management plans, community relations, waste management and international standards. Though non-binding, it provides civil society groups with leverage when it comes to holding Chinese companies responsible for their environmental and social impacts overseas.

Events & Announcements

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You are free to publish this material in its entirety or only in part in your newspapers, wire services, internet-based information networks and newsletters and you may use the information in your radio-TV discussions or as a basis for discussion in different fora, provided full credit is given to the author(s) and the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Kindly inform the publisher (NTS_Centre@ntu.edu.sg) and provide details of when and where the publication was used.

About the Centre:

The Centre for NTS Studies, based in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), was inaugurated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan in May 2008. The Centre maintains research in the fields of Climate Change, Food Security, Energy Security, Health Security, as well as Internal and Cross Border Conflict. It produces policy-relevant analyses aimed at furthering awareness and building capacity to address NTS issues and challenges in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. The Centre also provides a platform for scholars and policymakers within and outside Asia to discuss and analyse NTS issues in the region.

The Centre is the Coordinator of the ASEAN-Canada Research Partnership (2012–2015) supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. It also serves as the Secretariat of the initiative.

In 2009, the Centre was chosen by the MacArthur Foundation as a lead institution for its three-year Asia Security Initiative (2009–2012), to develop policy research capacity and recommend policies on the critical security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific. It is also a founding member and the Secretariat for the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia).

More information on the Centre can be found at www.rsis.edu.sg/nts.