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NTS Bulletin

NTS Bulletin July 2012

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NTS VIEWPOINT

Managing water: From technological advances to political solutions

Water summits and forums are increasingly becoming fashionable. Global water forums, such as World Water Week (organised by the Stockholm International Water Institute) and the recently concluded Singapore International Water Week, are being held with increasing frequency. However, such water meetings have tended to focus on technological solutions, with political solutions having been given relatively little attention.

Water security is a definite concern today. World population is predicted to grow from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 9.1 billion in 2050. Consequently, food demand is predicted to increase by 70 per cent while energy demand will rise by 60 per cent. This will substantially increase water demand and could lead to greater competition for water between different economic sectors and also between states. Thus, finding solutions to present and projected water scarcity constitutes one of key challenges of the 21st century.

While technological advances may be integral to the resolution of water issues, the world has more than 200 transboundary river basins, which underlines the importance of also looking at political solutions – especially with growing predictions that transboundary rivers could serve as triggers for inter-state conflicts in the 21st century, in much the same manner as oil did in the past century.

A case in point is the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. The area, which includes the Himalayan mountain range and the Tibetan Plateau, is the source of 10 huge Asian river systems, namely, the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow.

Growing competition over the use of waters, the lack of robust frameworks for cooperation, and deep-seated mistrust heighten the risks of conflict over the shared rivers in the region. Mistrust among the region’s riparian countries is fuelled by long-standing territorial disputes, such as those between Pakistan and India over Kashmir, India and China over Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, and the Central Asian states over the fertile and water-rich Fergana Valley.

Countries of the HKH region do have some existing frameworks, such as the Indus Waters Treaty, the Ganges Treaty and the Mekong River Commission. However, these treaties are river-centric, and focus narrowly on socioeconomic-related issues such as water allocation, navigation, hydroelectric dams and fisheries.

In order to sustainably manage shared rivers, it is important to also include entire river ecosystems. For instance, there is a need to take glaciers into account as they are extremely vulnerable to climate change. There are an estimated 15,000 glaciers atop the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. Seventy per cent of these glaciers, which feed the rivers of the HKH region, could be gone by the end of the century.

A framework for cooperation that balances socioeconomic needs with protection of river ecosystems is therefore essential. And such an arrangement could only be achieved through enhanced political dialogue between and among the riparian states sharing a transboundary river system.

Contributed by Pau Khan Khup Hangzo.

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CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND NATURAL DISASTERS

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This online resource presents daily reports from the UN Conference on Sustainable Development, or Rio+20, held in Rio de Janeiro in June 2012. The reports also cover the Rio+20 side events; the Sustainable Development Dialogue; the World Congress on Justice, Governance and Law for Environmental Sustainability; the Business Action for Sustainable Development 2012 Business Day and the Second High-level Round Table on the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.

This paper asserts that while the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is perhaps the most cost-efficient and effective means of reducing carbon emissions from industrial gases, the most prevalent investments in CDM are in wind and hydro power projects, and these are highly cost inefficient. This paper therefore highlights the inconsistencies in the CDM operations where the CDM may promote emissions reduction in developing countries, but does not necessarily reduce the global cost of reduction. Rather, it reflects a shift in the burden of investment.

This paper highlights advances in community monitoring of REDD+ projects, such as the use of smartphone applications for the gathering and reporting of data. The authors seem to suggest that enhancing the links between communities and national monitoring processes will serve to strengthen REDD+ implementation at the local level, particularly with respect to ensuring the social and environmental integrity of the system.

Events & Announcements

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ENERGY AND HUMAN SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report summarises the discussions among nuclear energy experts from industry and international and regional agencies as well as policymakers and researchers. The workshop is set against the backdrop of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster, and focuses on developments and debates surrounding nuclear energy in Asia and Europe. The report is organised according to the following themes: the debate on nuclear energy, different dimensions of nuclear safety, and the nuclear energy regulatory environment.

This volume represents the perspectives of scholars from across Asia. They discuss diverse aspects of energy security through an NTS lens. Their analyses of the region’s energy policies encompass issues related to the development and governance of energy markets, as well as the socioeconomic and environmental implications of efforts to achieve energy security through diversification into sources such as hydropower, biofuels, coal and nuclear energy.

This volume looks at energy security using the non-traditional security (NTS) lens, with a focus on the ways that governments and other actors have approached energy security challenges in some of Asia’s fastest-growing states, namely, Indonesia, Singapore, India and China. The cases presented in this volume highlight the complex issues surrounding energy security, with environmental concerns and socioeconomic development inextricably linked to questions of energy sustainability and vulnerability.

Events & Announcements

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FOOD AND HEALTH SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report addresses the world’s prevailing food security challenges, providing comprehensive recommendations that factors in the ecological foundation of food production and agricultural systems. Its analysis of the global food situation takes natural resources and ecosystem services into account. The report is a collaboration of 12 leading scientists and experts on food security.

Agricultural growth in India has not kept pace with the rapid expansion since the late 1980s of India’s overall economy. In this context, this paper looks at the prospects for a reduction in India’s rural poverty and for growth in the agricultural sector, taking several factors into account, including rural-urban migration and labour opportunities. The rural non-farm labour sector has grown significantly, in part a result of limited urban labour opportunities, but this dynamism is likely to be stunted without accelerated growth in the agricultural sector.

Events & Announcements

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WATER SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report observes that the ten most populous river basins, nine of which are in developing countries, are expected to produce a quarter of global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050, up from 10 per cent today. This growth is however under threat from unsustainable water consumption. If there is no change in management processes, the boom is predicted to result in significant to severe scarcity in seven of the highlighted river basins by the middle of the century.

This report examines progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets for drinking water and sanitation. Between 1990 and 2010, over 2 billion people gained access to improved water sources, meeting the MDG drinking-water target ahead of schedule. However, just 1.8 billion people gained access to improved sanitation over the same period, and the MDG sanitation target is unlikely to be met. The report thus calls for an acceleration of efforts before the MDG deadline.

Events & Announcements

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INTERNAL AND CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This article examines the role of governance in land disputes in China. It argues that governance weaknesses have exacerbated the land management problems in China, and that these land disputes are increasingly threatening social stability. The paper provides an analysis of governance weaknesses in terms of policy/legislation, policy implementation, inclusiveness of decision-making, and corruption.

This article explores why India as the major regional power in South Asia had not played a constructive role in preventing the escalation of violence in its immediate neighbour – Sri Lanka. The push and pull effects of historical and domestic factors had resulted in indecisiveness in India’s policies between 1991 and 2006 on the civil conflict in Sri Lanka. Further, the diplomatic efforts of the Sri Lankan government and Sino-Indo competition for influence in Sri Lanka had led to India’s siding with the Sri Lankan government.

Events & Announcements

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TRANSNATIONAL CRIME

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

The ILO estimated in 2005 that at least 12.3 million people were victims of forced labour worldwide. This included men, women and children who were trapped in jobs into which they were coerced or deceived and which they could not leave. The ILO’s new estimate puts the number at 20.9 million. This estimate uses the same basic statistical approach as in 2005, but with the methodology revised and improved.

The US Department of State recently released the latest edition of its annual report on trafficking in persons, in which it estimates the number of trafficked victims in 2011 at 42,000. Its latest ranking places 20 countries on a higher tier, meaning that their governments have implemented the right measures. Twenty-three countries are found to have failed to meet minimum international standards, up from 13 in 2010. Another 41 countries have been placed on a watch list and could face sanctions unless they improve their performance.

This report observes that illicit drugs continue to fuel crime and insecurity, undermine human rights and pose significant public health risks. It analyses trends in the production, trafficking and consumption of drugs and the consequences of illicit drug use. It notes that developments that would have policy implications include the continued shift from developed to developing countries in terms of drug use and the likely rise in the use of synthetic drugs.

Events & Announcements

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You are free to publish this material in its entirety or only in part in your newspapers, wire services, internet-based information networks and newsletters and you may use the information in your radio-TV discussions or as a basis for discussion in different fora, provided full credit is given to the author(s) and the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Kindly inform the publisher (NTS_Centre@ntu.edu.sg) and provide details of when and where the publication was used.

About the Centre:

The Centre for NTS Studies, based in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), was inaugurated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan in May 2008. The Centre maintains research in the fields of Climate Change, Food Security, Energy Security, Health Security, as well as Internal and Cross Border Conflict. It produces policy-relevant analyses aimed at furthering awareness and building capacity to address NTS issues and challenges in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. The Centre also provides a platform for scholars and policymakers within and outside Asia to discuss and analyse NTS issues in the region.

The Centre is the Coordinator of the ASEAN-Canada Research Partnership (2012–2015) supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. It also serves as the Secretariat of the initiative.

In 2009, the Centre was chosen by the MacArthur Foundation as a lead institution for its three-year Asia Security Initiative (2009–2012), to develop policy research capacity and recommend policies on the critical security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific. It is also a founding member and the Secretariat for the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia).

More information on the Centre can be found at www.rsis.edu.sg/nts.


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