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NTS Bulletin

NTS Bulletin January 2013

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NTS VIEWPOINT

Is 2015 the new Copenhagen? How the UNFCCC process risks falling into faulty patterns

By J. Jackson Ewing and Gianna Gayle Amul

Reactions to December’s UN climate change talks in Doha have been defined largely by frustration with the pace, scope and ambition of the process. Exasperated and often derisive voices lament the vacuous extension of the international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (the Kyoto Protocol), the pervasive uncertainties besetting funding for climate change efforts in developing countries and failures to heed increasingly clear scientific warnings.

On process, Doha only solidified the skirmish lines between critics of underwhelming outcomes at the annual meetings of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and those who claim that measured, modest progress represents the only game in town.

The Copenhagen syndrome

On a micro-level, Doha has seen a potentially troubling dynamic becoming further entrenched: the circling of calendar dates at which a future grand bargain is to take place. This risks eroding trust in the entire process, particularly with Copenhagen still casting a long shadow.

The 2009 talks in Copenhagen had taken on an almost mythical narrative as the place where the ship would be righted once and for all. Its relative failure created a backlash, and demonstrated that seemingly well-established plans in the climate change sector remained hostage to international trends and moods in a range of sectors.

Subsequent meetings in Cancun and Durban cooled down key climate debates by picking low-hanging fruits and making incremental progress on ostensibly achievable goals. This allowed the UNFCCC process to proceed with modest successes and thus avoid the cynicism and melancholy that followed Copenhagen.

Events at Doha raise the question of whether these recent softly-and-slowly approaches have fallen out of favour. The UNFCCC process now targets the 2015 climate change talks for a series of paramount decisions that will notionally usher in a new era of climate change response. It is in 2015 that ‘binding’ emissions targets will be set for key high-emitting countries, essential bargains will be struck between developing and developed states, and the question of what countries belong where in the climate discourse and framework re-evaluated.

This vision gives pause to those still smarting from Copenhagen’s failures. It would appear that Doha has doubled down on the UNFCCC proclivity for stop-gap measures meant to bridge the time between the present and some putative future in which political will might be more forthcoming.

The process paradox

Ambition and urgency along with incremental and at times piecemeal efforts both appear essential, if increasingly at odds with one another. Calls for patience and cautious optimism argue through various forms that Rome was not built in a day, and that facing climate challenges requires long-term diligence. Many scientific and policy voices, meanwhile, continue to spell out climate challenges, and the inadequacy of efforts to address them in increasingly stark terms.

Solutions to this process conundrum are far from apparent. The emphasis on strict lines between developed and developing countries continue to be contentious. Conversations about blurring these lines saw little movement in Doha as efforts to keep the climate architecture alive took centre stage. The toothlessness of ‘binding agreements’ should also be all too clear, and new approaches could either make censuring options apparent or move away from the obsession with binding agreements altogether. A robust mix of new metrics for emissions measurement, including through per-capita and per-unit of gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial activities, should be embraced.

Most importantly for any such efforts, however, is that UNFCCC participants continue to converge on overarching processes and strategies. This calls for a sober look at past failures, current trajectories and the connections that currently bind them.

J. Jackson Ewing and Gianna Gayle Amul are, respectively, Research Fellow and Research Analyst with the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

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CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND NATURAL DISASTERS

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This study examines gender as a significant dynamic that underpins the process of social and institutional changes in policy reform in addressing climate change. It provides an analysis of the extent to which gender differences are taken into account in the development of policies and plans for adaptation to climate change in Nepal, and investigates the opportunities and progress made towards mainstreaming gender into policy more widely.

This book focuses on sustainable aquaculture practices. It is based on extensive evidence and knowledge of best practices, and provides guidance on appropriate adaptation and uptake in a variety of environmental, geographic, socioeconomic and political settings. The author concentrates on low-impact aquaculture systems and approaches, which have minimal adverse effects on the environment; and he emphasises socially responsible and equitable aquaculture development to enhance the natural-resource base and livelihoods.

This report offers a ten-point agenda for improving environmental mainstreaming in the Philippines, to better tackle poverty and improve the sustainability of economic growth. It emphasises working ‘from the bottom’, that is, local government units engaging with the poor to identify environmental practices that support poverty reduction; and linking this to working ‘from the top’ by engaging the central financial, economic and development authorities and identifying policies that support local needs and environmental goods and services.

Events & Announcements

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ENERGY AND HUMAN SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This article examines the relationship between state capacity and industrial policy and the rapid growth of renewable energy in East Asia. It analyses the prospects of the region’s transition to low-carbon development and the challenges related to this trend.

This annual edition provides detailed statistics about global and regional consumption, production, and reserves of different energy sources. It also gives a brief forecast of trends in the energy sector.

Events & Announcements

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FOOD SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report states that cooperation between Australia and China in the agrifood sector can contribute to improving global food security through investments to improve productivity and expand productive capacity, and focused cooperation in innovation, technology and services. It lists specific recommendations on bilateral cooperation in the areas of investment, technological and services cooperation, and joint consultative mechanisms.

This study presents findings of a survey of rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh, China and India, and from these, assesses how domestic staples value chains are structured and performing in Asia after the food price hike in 2007–2008. It also provides a systematic and rigorous review of the catalytic roles that governments, the private sector, civil society and international development institutions can play in the process.

Events & Announcements

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HEALTH SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This article presents a review of the limited literature on health financing in fragile and post-conflict states. It finds that much of the existing literature relates to the role of donors. It notes the need for more work in some areas, such as access to care and equity over the post-conflict period, the mix and sequencing of financing mechanisms, and overall health financing strategies and their possible contribution to wider state-building.

This article argues the need to differentiate between health system support and health system strengthening in order to identify the policy and structural constraints that affect the performance of health systems. It asserts that providing health system support merely addresses current constraints while health system strengthening addresses future constraints. The article recommends criteria for designing more effective system strengthening interventions that can have long-term impact on health services as well as more effective resource allocation from donor organisations.

Events & Announcements

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INTERNAL AND CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This study examines the transformation of civil-military relations in Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. It argues that differences in the development of civil-military relations in these countries had serious repercussions for national security, political stability and democratic consolidation; and that this helps explain why South Korea, Taiwan and, to a lesser degree, Indonesia, have experienced successful democratic transformation, while Thailand and the Philippines have failed to establish stable democratic systems.

This article discusses the UN’s Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) initiative and its significance as an international political policy in relation to the use of coercive and military measures to prevent mass atrocity crimes. Topics include the UN Security Council’s Resolution 1973, its authorisation of military intervention in the Libyan civil war, and the political and operational difficulties associated with humanitarian war.

Events & Announcements

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TRANSNATIONAL CRIME

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report sheds light on the patterns and flows of human trafficking in 2012. It observes that at least 136 different nationalities were trafficked and detected in 118 different countries. One of the most worrying trends is the increase in child victims. There are, however, some positive trends. By 2012, 134 countries and territories had enacted legislation criminalising trafficking. Indeed, the percentage of countries without an offence criminalising this activity halved between 2008 and 2012.

The report is GFI’s annual update on the amount of money flowing out of developing economies via crime, corruption and tax evasion. In this report, GFI introduces a special analysis of sovereign wealth funds and their relationship to illicit financial flows. It found that the developing world lost USD859 billion to illicit outflows in 2010, an increase of 11 per cent over 2009. Conservatively estimated, illicit financial flows have increased in every region with developing countries.

Events & Announcements

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WATER SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Ethiopia’s Gibe III Dam could create a region-wide crisis for indigenous livelihoods and biodiversity and destabilise the Ethiopia-Kenyan borderlands around Lake Turkana. The long-term effect could parallel what has happened to Central Asia’s Aral Sea, one of the planet’s worst environmental disasters. This paper summarises decades of research on and around the lake by specialists, as well as recent studies of current threats. It then reviews the potential political consequences and suggests strategies that might be pursued to tackle them.

India’s National River Linking Project (NRLP) is the largest inter-basin water transfer planned to date in India or elsewhere. This article examines a few contentious issues that received considerable attention in the national discourse. It concludes that donor basins may have surplus water to make the NRLP technically feasible; however, there is need for a nuanced analysis of whether the project is the best possible option available to India.

It is argued that water is a fundamental human need, a human right and a core sustaining element in biodiversity and cultural diversity. This book offers an array of ideas, concepts and tools to understand and manage the sociocultural implications of the growing water crisis, and suggests alternative pathways to sustainability.

Events & Announcements

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About the Centre:

The Centre for NTS Studies, based in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), was inaugurated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan in May 2008. The Centre maintains research in the fields of Climate Change, Food Security, Energy Security, Health Security, as well as Internal and Cross Border Conflict. It produces policy-relevant analyses aimed at furthering awareness and building capacity to address NTS issues and challenges in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. The Centre also provides a platform for scholars and policymakers within and outside Asia to discuss and analyse NTS issues in the region.

The Centre is the Coordinator of the ASEAN-Canada Research Partnership (2012–2015) supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. It also serves as the Secretariat of the initiative.

In 2009, the Centre was chosen by the MacArthur Foundation as a lead institution for its three-year Asia Security Initiative (2009–2012), to develop policy research capacity and recommend policies on the critical security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific. It is also a founding member and the Secretariat for the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia).

More information on the Centre can be found at www.rsis.edu.sg/nts.


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