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NTS Bulletin

NTS Bulletin September 2010 (Issue 1)

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Issues: Note: Please click on the respective titles or headers for the full report.

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Asia Security Initiative Blog
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MAIN HIGHLIGHT

Asia Flooded with Disasters

The past month has witnessed several major environmental disasters in Asia. Of particular significance are the Pakistan floods, which have engulfed a fifth of Pakistan’s total land area and affected 20 million people. According to international humanitarian organisation Islamic Relief, the damage caused by the Pakistan floods is worse than that of the 2004 Asian tsunami, 2005 Pakistan earthquake and the 2010 Haiti earthquake combined. A series of landslides also occurred as a result of heavy rainfall and flooding in China. A number of provinces have been the hardest hit, in particular, the northwest province of Gansu, the northeast province of Liaoning and the southern province of Yunnan. The death toll as a result of the landslides is said to be more than 2,000 thus far. Said to be the worst case of flooding and mudslides in China this year, estimates are that the heavy rains have affected more than 305 million people across the country and cost US$1.7 billion. In terms of response to the disasters, China seems to have managed the crises better than Pakistan. China was even able to provide aid to Pakistan, while still managing to address its own set of floods and landslides. Nevertheless, latest reports suggest that flooding in both Pakistan and China continue to be a problem, with floods in the latter spilling over to North Korea.

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HEALTH AND HUMAN SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

The paper highlights the use of rabies vaccines in large-scale immunisation programmes around the world. It provides background information on the disease, such as the vaccines available and their efficacy, and incorporates the most recent developments in the field of human rabies vaccines, in particular with regard to immunisation schedules. The report states that concentrated and purified cell-culture and embryonated egg-based rabies vaccines should replace nerve-tissue vaccines as they are safer and more potent. It also calls for coordinated effort from all public sectors involved in rabies control in order to contain the spread of the disease.

The article discusses China’s response to the outbreak of SARS in 2003 and how it led to important changes in the Chinese public health system which subsequently shaped its later response to diseases such as H1N1. It also analyses the differences between the U.S and Chinese public health, political and legal systems. It argues that the different pandemic response experiences and strategies should be shared among countries in order to strengthen both individual country responses as well as the responses of the global community.

The report is the first attempt at mapping the global distribution of the parasite Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) and showed that almost half of the world's population is at risk from the parasite, known as the ‘other malaria’. P. vivax causes a severe disease that is rarely fatal, but can be debilitating and lead to economic losses. It is also responsible for the majority of malaria cases outside Africa. It is more widely distributed than Plasmodium falciparum, the more widely known malaria parasite that causes a more severe manifestation of the disease. The results of the report show that 2.85 billion people were exposed to some level of risk of transmission in 2009.

Events

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CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND NATURAL DISASTERS

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report argues that environmental stresses, when combined with the other socioeconomic and political stresses on Pakistan, have the potential to further weaken an already weak Pakistani state. It notes that Pakistan is especially vulnerable due to mounting demographic stresses, internal political instability, security challenges and limited economic resources.

This report argues that Asia's coastal megacities are increasingly vulnerable to flooding disasters resulting from the combined effects of climate change, land subsidence and rapid urban growth. Hence, the implementation of climate risk management in planning and policy must be given high priority if there is to be hope of meeting the twin challenges posed by climate change and urban growth. The author further argues that substantial barriers to implementing these measures must first be overcome, namely, lack of awareness, the distracting immediacy of other problems, budgetary constraints and governance issues.

This report explores not only the direct environmental impacts of climate change, but also the social, political, psychological and economic shifts that it may cause. It demonstrates that low-income countries cannot and should not have to make a choice between addressing climate change and development. It shows how the two are fundamentally and inextricably linked, and explains the value of a holistic approach that addresses them together.

This policy report attempts to analyse the extent to which climate change impacts Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led trade and investment policies in the Mekong subregion (comprising Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam). This report found that trade liberalisation is still perceived as the foremost means to achieve sustained economic growth and that most national plans of countries in the subregion are focused on trade-related mechanisms aimed at addressing climate change challenges. It also found that ASEAN-facilitated projects in the subregion could be considered as alternatives to climate-threatened agricultural production and other industries dependent on primary resources. However, these projects would also result in the loss of natural capital that would be too high for countries reliant on natural resources.

Events

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FOOD SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This brief highlights the realities faced by small farmers, including low education levels, the dominance of subsistence farming, and the lack of access to modern financial instruments. These conditions mean that new and innovative institutions are required to reach small farmers. Emerging communication technologies provide new opportunities for rural banking by reducing business costs and alleviating information asymmetries. New financing instruments, such as weather index-based insurance and microinsurance, also have great potential for managing risks faced by small farmers. In addition, bundling financial services with non-financial services such as marketing and extension services offers new opportunities for small farmers to increase their productivity and incomes. Finally, an enabling policy environment and legal framework, enforcement of rules and regulations, and a supportive rural infrastructure all contribute immensely to making sustainable access to finance a reality.

This report documents the World Food Programme’s (WFP) effort to bring a measure of relief to the world’s hungry poor. It observed that 2009 proved to be a challenging year for the organisation. Just as the number of hungry people worldwide grew to more than 1 billion – the highest number on record – WFP also faced a shrinking humanitarian safe space to reach people, with unprecedented attacks on its staff and other humanitarian workers. Despite these challenges, WFP was able to provide life-saving food and nutrition assistance for 101.8 million people affected by conflict, storms, droughts, displacement, financial crises and other shocks; 84 million of these beneficiaries were women and children.

Widespread malnutrition in developing countries calls for appropriate strategies, which presuppose good knowledge about nutritional impacts of policies. Little previous work has been carried out in this direction, especially with respect to micronutrients. The authors of this paper use representative household data from Malawi and develop a demand systems approach to estimate income and price elasticities of food demand and nutrient consumption. These estimates are then applied to policy simulations. It was found that given multiple nutritional deficiencies, income-related policies are better suited than price policies to improve nutrition. Also, although consumer price subsidies for maize improve calorie and mineral consumption, they can worsen vitamin consumption in urban areas.

Recent events in Russia, one of the largest suppliers of wheat in the world, have raised concern about the current and future price of wheat and wheat-based products. This article briefly examines the issue and determines if there is in fact cause for serious alarm. It concludes that there is no reason to worry about major increases in wheat-related products such as bread or cereals. U.S. wheat producers are probably going to take advantage of the present situation, and there are going to be some further price adjustments, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, parts of Asia, and possibly Latin America, but skyrocketing global food prices are unlikely.

The Food Security Risk Index 2010, released by risk analysis and rating firm Maplecroft, evaluates the risks to the supply of basic food staples for 163 countries. It uses 12 criteria developed in collaboration with the World Food Programme to calculate the ranking including: the nutritional and health status of populations, cereal production and imports, gross domestic product per capita, natural disasters, conflict and the effectiveness of government. The Index rates Afghanistan as least secure in food supplies, whilst the African nations of the Democratic Republic of Congo(2), Burundi(3), Eritrea(4), Sudan(5), Ethiopia(6), Angola(7), Liberia(8), Chad(9) and Zimbabwe(10) are also considered to be at ‘extreme risk’. In all, African nations make up 36 of the 50 nations most at risk in the index.

Events

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ENERGY AND HUMAN SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Energy security is a fundamental requirement for national security, and global energy competition threatens to make US Department of Defense (DoD) missions increasingly vulnerable to the whims of energy suppliers. This analysis offers key insights into what a shifting energy security environment is, and the paper provides a novel theoretical framework for how the United States can best respond to this ever changing energy security environment.

This article explores the causes of the decrease in oil and gas production in Indonesia over the past decade. It notes that policymakers are now pursuing exploration more energetically. However, issues relevant to the energy investment environment, such as resource nationalism, the anti-corruption drive and decentralisation, have caused concern – producers are concerned about fair cost-recovery rules and the legal and regulatory environment. Measures that the government can take include stemming the erosion of fiscal terms in contracts and ensuring contract sanctity.

This article offers an overview of the new dynamics of the energy market. With the market heading towards a global oil supply crunch and business no longer able to rely on the availability of low-cost traditional energy sources, sustainable energy should be pursued. Among other issues, the article looks at the increasingly important role of China and Asia in global energy security and how natural disasters resulting from climate change are adding to the uncertainty of the energy market. It points to the need for business to reduce fossil fuel consumption so as to reduce vulnerability and maintain competitiveness. It also looks at the rising investment interest in renewable energy and ‘intelligent’ infrastructure, and how this represents huge opportunities for new business partnerships.

This report is intended to help policymakers address the challenges of meeting the energy needs of the poor, highlighting the central role of capacity development in improving rural energy service delivery. It looks at the importance of initial public investment to scale up services to a level that would attract private financing to invest in such development, thus helping to achieve universal energy access. The report presents case studies of two successfully scaled-up national programmes in Nepal. It also offers an analysis of the costs and sources of financing for capacity development.

This article tests the hypothesis of ‘resource curse’ which posits that countries depending on oil or other extractive industries for their livelihood are among the most economically troubled, socially unstable, authoritarian and conflict-ridden in the world. It introduces metrics that can be used to identify the presence of the resource curse and tests these metrics on Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) oil and gas producers – Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Thailand – from 1987 to 2007. It compares these Southeast Asian countries with producers in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as producers in Brazil, China, India, the Russian Federation and South Africa. It concludes that the resource curse does not occur in any of these countries, and that the theory does not sufficiently explain why some countries appear to be ‘cursed’ with resources while others do not.

Events

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Use of this article:

You are free to publish this article in its entirety or only in part in your newspapers, wire services, internet-based information networks and newsletters and you are also free to use the information in your radio-TV discussions or as a basis for discussion in different fora. We would, however, appreciate it if you could let us know when and where the article was used.

About the Centre:

The Centre for NTS Studies of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, was inaugurated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan in May 2008. The Centre maintains research in the fields of Climate Change, Energy Security, Health Security, as well as Internal and Cross Border Conflict. It produces policy-relevant analyses aimed at furthering awareness and building capacity to address NTS issues and challenges in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. The Centre also provides a platform for scholars and policymakers within and outside Asia to discuss and analyse NTS issues in the region.

In 2009, the Centre was chosen by the MacArthur Foundation as a lead institution for the MacArthur Asia Security Initiative, to develop policy research capacity and recommend policies on the critical security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific.

The Centre is also a founding member and the Secretariat for the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia). More information on the Centre can be found at www.rsis.edu.sg/nts


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