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NTS Bulletin

NTS Bulletin May 2010 (Issue 2)
Issues:
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MAIN HIGHLIGHT

Transboundary Rivers: Sources of Conflict or Cooperation?

Transboundary rivers are highly political and can become a source of inter-state conflict if they are not managed well. The latest chapter in the long-running feud over the sharing of transboundary rivers came when an Extraordinary Nile Council of Ministers’ Meeting brought together all the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) member countries at Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt on 13 April 2010. The meeting, attended by both upper riparian countries (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea and Burundi) and lower riparian countries (Egypt and Sudan) exposed the deep fissures that separate the two groups. Whereas the upper riparian countries pushed for a Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) that would allow for the equitable sharing of water, Egypt and Sudan, which between them take the lion’s share, refused to cooperate.

Meanwhile, drought across southern China and Southeast Asia has brought the Mekong River to its lowest level in 50 years. The drought has led to debate over the vital resource and the effects that economic development, especially dam construction, may have on the river flow. These and other concerns resulted in the First MRC Summit and International Conference in Thailand from 2 to 5 April 2010. The Summit, the first of its kind, brought together regional political leaders and a range of experts in the field of integrated water resources management. It served to strengthen regional cooperation between member countries, dialogue partners, and civil society in this important area.

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MIGRATION

News & Commentaries

Papers & Reports

This book offers a comprehensive and accessible overview of international labour migration and the ILO's efforts to protect migrant workers through a rights-based approach. It gives new insights into the factors that motivate people to seek work outside their country of origin and the significant development effects on both origin and destination countries. Exposing the often limited access of migrant workers to their fundamental rights at work, it describes in detail the international norms that have evolved to protect migrant workers and ensure decent work for all. It reflects on existing and potential international governance structures, addressing the linkages between migration and development, and reviews the role of the ILO's Multilateral Framework on Labour Migration in improving policymaking and international cooperation in the area of labour migration.

The global financial and economic crisis has brought with it significant employment and social challenges, particularly for migrant workers from developing countries. This new ILO study on North and West Africa shows that the latter tends to be disproportionately affected by job losses in destination countries, with the flow of remittances to their countries of origin suffering a major decline. This has raised questions about the extent to which migration can contribute to development in countries of origin.

Events & Announcements

Latest Publications

The Sahrawi and Afghan refugee youth in the Middle East have been stereotyped regionally and internationally: some have been objectified as passive victims; others have become the beneficiaries of numerous humanitarian aid packages which presume the primacy of the Western model of child development. This book compares and contrasts both: the stereotypes and Western-based models of humanitarian assistance among Sahrawi youth with the lack of programming and near total self-sufficiency of Afghan refugee youth in Iran. Both extremes offer an important opportunity to further explore the impact that forced migration and prolonged conflict have had, and continue to have, on the lives of these refugee youth and their families. This study examines refugee communities closely linked with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and a host of other UN agencies in the case of the Sahrawi and near total lack of humanitarian aid in the case of Afghan refugees in Iran.

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INTERNAL AND CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT

News & Commentaries

Papers & Reports

This article tracks the evolution of Australian government responses to decades of attempts by West Papuans to gain recognition for their homeland. It argues that the Australian government has continued to balance its policy to appease Australian public opinion and its sympathies with West Papuans and at the same time consider the sensitivities of Indonesia. It further argues that Australia has largely avoided receiving refugees from West Papua and instead cooperates with Indonesia in relation to asylum seekers and supports Indonesian territorial integrity.

This report focuses on the continuing upsurge in violence in Indonesia’s easternmost province of Papua. It identifies the shift from peaceful protests to an increase in the number of activities by militant activists. The reason for the increase in violence is attributed to 2009 being an election year and the establishment of a political group called International Parliamentarians for West Papua. The most significant violence that has occurred is the increase in over the last eight months of shootings along Freeport’s main mining road linking the population centres of Timika and Tembagapura. The report cites many local and international observers who identify the security forces as responsible as a way of increasing support for the Komite Nasional Papua Barat (KNPB). This report argues that there is a stronger case for the involvement of one or more members of Tentara Pembebasan Nasional/ Organisasi Papua Merdeka (TPN/OPM) – the guerrilla army of the Free Papua Movement. The report concludes that for dialogue to be successful between the local population and the central government, it will first need acknowledgement that the solution for Papua is more than just economic development and public endorsement from Indonesia’s President Yudhoyono.

This report focuses on developments affecting Papuans and focuses on analysing resources and reporting from sources in West Papua. The report highlights the ongoing human security issues in West Papua and calls for international support to assist in promoting human rights. It identifies development initiatives and particularly the issue of ‘land grabbing’ as a cause for internal displacement. It also identifies the Freeport McMoran mine and the recent government plan to send migrants from other areas of Indonesia to West Papua as a source of human insecurity.

This study discusses the development of Indonesian attitudes and policies toward Papua from the preparations for Indonesian independence in mid-1945 to the present day. It emphasises the Indonesian view that Papua has been an integral part of the Indonesian state ever since the proclamation of independence. From Jakarta’s perspective, Papua is no more or less part of Indonesia than Yogyakarta or Manado. The study traces the ebb and flow of Indonesian government policies toward Papua from the founding President Sukarno to his daughter President Megawati Sukarnoputri. As Indonesian governments have changed from radical nationalist through military authoritarian to democratically elected, government policies, too, have ranged from the overtly repressive to the occasionally accommodative. The study argues that the nationalist conviction that Papua is an integral part of Indonesia remains the dominant framework in which government policy is made and public opinion formed.

On 16 February 2010, Burkina Faso and the Republic of Moldova ratified the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM), thereby bringing the total number of ratifications to 30 and thus triggering the six-month countdown to entry into force. The Convention will enter into force on 1 August 2010, and the First Meeting of States Parties will be held in Lao PDR in November. Over 100 countries have already signed this humanitarian disarmament treaty, negotiated in May 2008. While encouraging additional states to ratify the treaty is critical to its ultimate success, international attention will be shifting to the nuts and bolts issues of implementation of the Convention’s provisions. The CCM comprehensively bans the use, production, stockpiling and transfer of cluster munitions. In addition, the treaty obliges its member states to assist victims of cluster munitions, clear cluster munition affected areas, destroy their stockpiles of the weapon, and cooperate with and assist each other towards these ends. This issue of Disarmament Forum examines what would be required to implement some of these humanitarian and development commitments.

According to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin, five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in April 2010. CrisisWatch warns that the situation in Thailand could deteriorate further into an undeclared civil war if tensions are not eased soon. In Kyrgyzstan, there have been weeks of protests against utility price increases and popular discontent with the corruption that characterised President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s rule. April saw heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula after the sinking of a South Korean ship in late March, in which 46 people were killed, and what was caused by what investigators say was most likely an external explosion. The security situation also deteriorated in India, where Maoist insurgents killed 76 paramilitary troops in their deadliest attack in decades, and in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where rebel activity and clashes with government soldiers destabilised several provinces across the country’s east and north-west. CrisisWatch has identified a Conflict Risk Alert for Sudan after claims of flawed elections, which returned President Omar al-Bashir to power. With opposition parties contesting the results, and signs of increased violence in both the South and in Darfur, there is now a heightened risk that the situation could worsen ahead of next year’s planned referendum on the South’s independence. CrisisWatch also warns that mounting political tensions in Nepal could lead to new confrontation between the Maoists and the government.

Events & Announcements

Latest Publications

This study conducts a quantitative and qualitative analysis of 89 insurgency case studies with lessons from insurgency and counterinsurgency (COIN) literature to test conventional wisdom on how insurgencies end. While no two insurgencies are the same, the authors find that modern insurgencies last about 10 years and that a government’s chances of winning may increase slightly over time. The study finds that insurgencies are suited to hierarchical organisation and rural terrain, and sanctuary is vital to insurgents. Insurgent use of terrorism often backfires, and withdrawal of state sponsorship can cripple an insurgency, typically leading to its defeat. Inconsistent support to either side generally presages defeat for that side, although weak insurgencies can still win. Anocracies (pseudo-democracies) rarely succeed against insurgencies. Historically derived force ratios are neither accurate nor predictive, and civil defence forces are very useful for both sides. Key indicators of possible trends and tipping points in an insurgency include changes in desertions, defections, and the flow of information to the COIN effort. The more parties in an insurgency, the more likely it is to have a complex and protracted ending. There are no COIN shortcuts.

The main focus of the book is ‘non-state armed groups’ i.e. groups that are armed, use force to achieve their political or quasi-political objectives, and are opposed to or autonomous from the state. At the centre of the book are the protagonists of the Philippines' two major internal armed conflicts: the nationwide Communist insurgency, mainly of the CPP-NPA, and the Moro insurgency in the Muslim part of Mindanao. The armed groups that this book investigates are for the most part ideologically driven, predictable, and supported by a part of the local population. The ideological foundations and activist nature of many Filipino armed groups steer the thematic discussions in Part One of this volume. Since the groups are more amenable to constructive engagements in peace processes and other human security endeavours than predatory or opportunistic armed groups would be, the authors chose to home in on human security efforts. Philippine armed groups are undoubtedly part of the human security problem in the country; a working hypothesis of this study is that the ‘primed and purposeful’ non-state armed groups must also be part of the solution. Among the intended audiences for this book are those people who interact with, affect, or are affected by Philippine armed groups, be they from government, business, or civil society.

Globally, there are approximately 300 million indigenous peoples i.e. five per cent of the global population with about 80 per cent of them living in Asia. But they account for about 10 per cent of the global poor. Yet to date, most of the research on the world’s indigenous peoples has concentrated on richer countries (the United States, Australia, Canada and New Zealand) and, more recently, Latin America. Not only does this leave out some of the most populous and poorest areas of the world, it also ignores more than half the world’s indigenous population. The authors of the study argue widespread and sustainable growth and poverty reduction may be a necessary but insufficient condition in eliminating the indigenous poverty gap. This means that policymakers might want to focus first on identifying and tackling the binding national country constraints to poverty reduction. This alone should benefit vast segments of the indigenous population. After that, strategies to address multiple sources of disadvantages can be undertaken to reach those who need a special lift. The study points out that to accomplish all this, policymakers around the world will need help from statisticians, economists and anthropologists – in the form of better disaggregated data on indigenous peoples, more insight into why indigenous peoples are poor, a deeper understanding of what has determined the success of some ‘outlier’ or successful groups, and better evaluations of bilingual education and targeted programmes.

This Council Special Report examines how the United States should advance its interests at the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) 2010 review conference, scheduled for May and June in Kampala, Uganda. The report outlines the history of US policy towards the Court – The United States has long been a leading force behind international efforts to bring the perpetrators of atrocities to justice. It spearheaded the prosecution of German and Japanese officials after World War II and more recently, supported tribunals to deal with events in Rwanda, the former Yugoslavia, and elsewhere. However, although US administrations have cooperated to varying degrees with the ICC, the notion of ratifying the Rome Statute and joining the court has never been seriously entertained. The report analyses the principal items on the review conference agenda, most notably the debate over the crime of aggression. The conference faces the task of deciding whether to adopt a definition of aggression and, should it do so, whether and how to activate the court’s jurisdiction over this crime. Offering guidance for US policy, the report recommends that the United States not seek to join the Court in the foreseeable future.

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HUMAN TRAFFICKING

News & Commentaries

Papers & Reports

This Issue Paper offers a brief overview of the crime of migrant smuggling. It explains aspects of the crime as defined in the Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea and Air (Smuggling of Migrants Protocol) supplementing the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organised Crime. The paper also explores how the crime of migrant smuggling is committed, the role played by individual criminal actors in the process, and explains the difference between migrant smuggling and the distinct but related crime of human trafficking.

This Issue Paper is the result of an expert group meeting held in Vienna in December 2009, which brought together expert practitioners from all over the world. This Issue Paper explores the particular modus operandi of smuggling migrants by air and touches upon the various challenges involved in addressing this issue. The paper also offers some recommendations about strengthening and coordinating response to this issue.

This 114-page report documents the system of exploitation and abuse in which at least 50,000 boys known as talibés – the vast majority under age 12 and many as young as four – are forced to beg on Senegal’s streets for long hours, seven days a week, by often brutally abusive teachers, known as marabouts. The report says that the boys often suffer extreme abuse, neglect, and exploitation by the teachers. It is based on interviews with 175 current and former talibés, as well as some 120 other people, including marabouts, families who sent their children to these schools, Islamic scholars, government officials, and humanitarian officials.

This 26-page report reviews conditions in eight countries with large numbers of migrant domestic workers: Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Singapore and Malaysia. The report surveys progress in extending protection to domestic workers under labour laws, reforming immigration ‘sponsorship’ systems that contribute to abuse, ensuring effective response by police and courts to physical and sexual violence, and allowing civil society and trade unions to organise.

Events & Announcements

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This document provides an overview of current trends and future directions in the forced migration field, highlighting themes and topics requiring further attention from researchers, policymakers and practitioners. The following seven interconnected themes have been identified: state fragility and forced migration; the economics of forced migration; environmental displacement; displaced groups with specific needs; durable solutions; humanitarian space and spaces of protection; and realising protection, legal and institutional challenges. The document also identifies areas likely to demand attention in the future.

Amid growing concerns over the impact of the economic downturn, the International Labour Office warned in a new study Accelerating action against child labour that efforts to eliminate the worst forms of child labour are slowing down and called for a ‘re-energized’ global campaign to end the practice. The report noted that the global number of child labourers had declined from 222 million to 215 million, or three per cent, over the period 2004 to 2008, representing a ‘slowing down of the global pace of reduction’. However, it warns that the global economic crisis could ‘further brake’ progress towards the goal of eliminating the worst forms of child labour by 2016. According to the report, the overall pattern of child labour reduction has been maintained: the more harmful the work and the more vulnerable the children involved, the faster the decline. However, a staggering 115 million are still exposed to hazardous work, a proxy often used for the worst forms of child labour. The report breaks down data by age and gender and shows that progress was greatest among children aged 5 to 14, where the number of child labourers fell by 10 per cent. The number of children in hazardous work in this age range fell by 31 per cent. Child labour among girls decreased considerably (by 15 million or 15 per cent). However, it increased among boys (by 8 million or 7 per cent). Child labour among young people aged 15 to 17 increased by 20 per cent, from 52 million to 62 million. The Global Report also includes data aggregated by region. It shows, for example, that Asia Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean continue to reduce child labour, while sub-Saharan Africa has witnessed an increase both in relative and absolute terms. This region also has the highest incidence of children working, with one in four children engaged in child labour.

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WATER SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Papers & Reports

The report focuses on the need for reviewing current policies on upland agriculture in the wake of recent research that shows that slash-and-burn farming systems are not only more sustainable than other systems but could also play a better role in sustaining downstream hydropower and river delta rice-bowls. The key findings of the report show that partnerships between upland farmers and hydropower developers could help protect future hydropower generation from high erosion rates and reservoir siltation, adaptation to climate change will require a strong focus on stabilising slopes prone to landslides and more effective management of riparian zones, and large-scale commercial biofuel production systems have higher rates of erosion than traditional cropping systems and require strong soil conservation measures.

The Global Annual Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) is a UN-Water initiative implemented by the World Health Organization (WHO). Its objective is to provide policymakers at all levels with a reliable, easily accessible, comprehensive and global analysis of the evidence to make informed decisions in sanitation and drinking water. With over 2.6 billion people living without access to improved sanitation facilities, and nearly 900 million people not receiving their drinking water from improved water sources, UN-Water GLAAS highlights where efforts stagnate in achieving the Millennium Development Goal Target 7.C which is to halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. It also highlights the post-2015 challenges that need to be addressed by the United Nations system to collectively support its member states.

According to engineering experts, the UK’s reliance on ‘virtual’ water, in imported food and other supplies, is exacerbating water shortages in other countries. They warn the UK’s future development could be threatened if it does not address the escalating global water crisis with urgency. Two thirds of the UK’s water footprint is now effectively imported in the form of food, energy and other goods that require water for production and transportation from countries that are themselves under water stress. The authors suggest that the UK must take the lead by tackling its own water footprint, managing its own water resources sustainably but also by managing the virtual water embedded in its imports. Because the UK uses so much water internationally through its imported goods and services, it has a duty to provide leadership on the development and implementation of global responses.

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In both OECD and non-OECD countries, the water sector is facing the challenges of increased competition for water resources, deteriorating water quality, and the effects of climate change and poor management. In this context, how can countries ensure access to adequate, sustainable and affordable water and sanitation services for all? According to a report by the OECD, pricing water-related services is an essential part of the answer. The report compiles reliable and comparable data on pricing water and on water supply and sanitation services across OECD countries. It sheds additional light on such policy issues as the choice of tariff structures for water services, cost recovery for water services and affordability.

Excess water in the urban environment leads to flooding, which in turn causes structural damage, risks to personal safety and disruption to city life. Water is also a major contributory factor in disease transmission as well as being the transport medium of many pollutants. These problems are of increasing concern due to climate change, and are particularly apparent in the humid tropics. Integrated Urban Water Management: Humid Tropics – the output of a project by UNESCO’s International Hydrological Programme on the topic – focuses on engineering aspects related to water supply, wastewater and stormwater management in the humid tropics. Flood control is dealt with, focusing on reducing vulnerability to flood disasters in urban areas. The book also addresses environmental health concerns related to the different components of the urban water system and proposes strategies for their control. It illustrates different aspects of integrated water management in the urban environment by drawing upon a set of case studies – predominantly from South America.

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TRANSNATIONAL CRIME

News & Commentaries

Papers & Reports

The ‘Special 301’ Report is an annual review of the global state of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and enforcement, conducted by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) pursuant to Section 182 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended by the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988 and the Uruguay Round Agreements Act (enacted in 1994). This report identifies a wide range of serious concerns, ranging from troubling ‘indigenous innovation’ policies that may unfairly disadvantage US rights holders in China, to the continuing challenges of Internet piracy in countries such as Canada and Spain, to the ongoing systemic IPR enforcement challenges in many countries around the world. Positive accomplishments recognised in this year’s report include improved efforts by trading partners, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, all of whom have been removed from the watch list. Additionally, after successful Out-of-Cycle Reviews in 2009, Saudi Arabia was removed from the watch list, and Israel has entered into an understanding with the United States whereby it will address key outstanding IPR issues.

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The ‘Digest of Terrorist Cases’ is a specialised tool developed by UNODC’s Terrorism Prevention Branch, with the support of the Governments of Colombia, Germany and Italy, in line with its mandate to strengthen the legal regime against terrorism. It draws upon actual investigations, prosecutions and legal experiences concerning terrorist cases reviewed and commented on by national experts involved. The digest is organised around seven thematic chapters, each referring to several legal cases. The themes covered are: offences for terrorist acts already committed; offences to prevent terrorist acts; relationship between terrorism and other forms of crime; the statutory framework for terrorism prosecutions; investigation and adjudication issues; international cooperation; and innovation and proposals. The digest is the product of an expert working group made up of judicial, prosecution and law enforcement experts in terrorism. In a series of meetings facilitated by UNODC, the experts exchanged judicial experiences related to cases involving terrorist acts that have occurred in their countries, focusing on methods of investigation and prosecution, judgements and judicial verdicts.

This Transparency International publication focuses on an area of arms trade, defence offsets, which according to their study carries high corruption risks that are not being adequately addressed. Defence offsets are arrangements in which the purchasing government of the importing country obliges the supplying company of the exporting country to reinvest some proportion of the contract in the importing country. Virtually all importing governments require offsets when purchasing defence material. Defence contracts involve great expenditure, and thus the offset arrangements are similarly large in value. They are also highly susceptible to corruption. Offsets are under much less scrutiny during their negotiation than the main arms deal. In many countries, there is almost no due diligence on potential improper beneficiaries from the offsets, no monitoring of performance on offset contracts, no audits of what was delivered compared to the pledges, and no publication of offset results, benefits or performance at all. Transparency International calls on governments and the defence industry to work collaboratively to raise integrity and reduce the corruption risks in all offset contracts.

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About the Centre:

The Centre for NTS Studies of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, was inaugurated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan in May 2008. The Centre maintains research in the fields of Climate Change, Energy Security, Health Security, as well as Internal and Cross Border Conflict. It produces policy-relevant analyses aimed at furthering awareness and building capacity to address NTS issues and challenges in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. The Centre also provides a platform for scholars and policymakers within and outside Asia to discuss and analyse NTS issues in the region.

In 2009, the Centre was chosen by the MacArthur Foundation as a lead institution for the MacArthur Asia Security Initiative, to develop policy research capacity and recommend policies on the critical security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific.

The Centre is also a founding member and the Secretariat for the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia). More information on the Centre can be found at www.rsis.edu.sg/nts


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