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NTS Bulletin

NTS Bulletin March 2011 (Issue 2)

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Libya – The Risky Business of Internal Conflict

What started off as a peaceful protest has descended into a full-scale armed insurrection, pitching opposition forces in the east against loyalist forces (estimated at 8,000 and 40,000 respectively). The crisis has led to more than 1,000 deaths and resulted in the exodus of an estimated 200,000 people; some of these literally walked to neighbouring countries while others were comfortably evacuated by their governments. At the same time, thousands of foreign workers from poorer Asian countries are stranded in various parts of the country as their governments have proven to be unable to offer them any sort of assistance. Their fate seems particularly dire as the conflict is likely to intensify.

It has already been suggested that the country could split into two if the situation deteriorates further. The prospect of the conflict escalating and the country splitting depends on one factor that has gained attention only recently: the disappearance of firearms from government arsenals.

Ever since the rebel forces gained control of key cities in eastern Libya, scores of weapons such as tanks, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, assault rifles, machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades have been looted, raising further concerns.

Analysts noted that once these weapons slip from state custody, they can be sold through black markets to other countries and groups for use in wars where they can present long-lasting and destabilising problems. Past examples include Uganda in 1979, Albania in 1997 and Iraq in 2003. Securing loose weapons stockpiles should therefore be a top priority for the international community.

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HUMAN TRAFFICKING

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Based on a study of 147 countries between 2001 and 2009, the paper argues that the Anti-trafficking Protocol reflects the interests of the major powers. The Protocol has three main obligations – prevention, protection and prosecution. The paper suggests that ratification of the Protocol has the strongest effect on the ‘prevention’ obligation, rather than the ‘protection’ and ‘persecution’ obligations, of a member state, as countries strategically select certain obligations, those which incur the lowest costs, to comply with to satisfy major powers.

This paper studies the evolution of sex trafficking discourse at the global level. It discusses the impacts of the ‘Violence against Women’ framework that has occupied much of the discourse and uses Russia as a case study.

Events & Announcements

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INTERNAL AND CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

In recognition of the State’s primary role in protecting the people, the article examines how the recent institutional developments within ASEAN could contribute to advancing the civilian protection agenda and developing a regional capacity for ensuring peace and stability.

This NTS Perspectives argues that an effective approach for civilian protection in Southeast Asia needs to be broad-based and human-security-oriented. The establishment of an array of regional institutions has presented opportunities for the diffusion of people-centred norms and engagement with multiple actors.

The ongoing protests that are currently taking place all across the Arab world are driven by the lack of progress in human development. The report calls upon policymakers and other stakeholders in the Arab world to move away from a traditional, state-centric conception of security to one which concentrates also on the security of individuals, their protection and empowerment. In so doing, it draws attention to a multitude of threats which cuts across different aspects of human development in the region, highlighting the need for an integrated approach to advancing development, security, good governance and human rights.

Events & Announcements

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MIGRATION

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This paper explores the relationship between migration and consumption patterns in Vietnam between 2004 and 2006. The research highlights that short-term migration produced more significant positive impacts on overall per capita food expenditures, per capita calorie consumption and food diversity, as compared to long-term migration. To improve food security, the paper encouraged the government to facilitate short-term migration flows and the transfer of remittances.

The working paper discusses the role of emigration in influencing institutional changes in migrant-sending countries. It also studies the impacts of skilled emigration on developing human capital in sending countries. It finds that openness to migration contributes to improving the institutional quality in sending countries.

The article discusses efforts at reconstructing and re-orienting patterns of migration across South and Southeast Asia during and after the Second World War. In particular, the article examines the changing dynamics between sovereignty and necessity, policy and pragmatism, and how these were tackled.

Events & Announcements

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TRANSNATIONAL CRIME

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This paper discusses the complexity of the issue of the illicit trade in looted antiquities. It attempts to highlight and deconstruct several myths surrounding this phenomenon by exploring the question of whether and to what extent organised crime is involved in the theft and illicit export of archaeological resources. The findings of this article can potentially enrich the definitional debate on organised crime as well as the academic analysis of the trade in looted antiquities.

This paper attempts to analyse the scale, flow, profit distribution and impact of 12 different types of illicit trade: drugs, humans, wildlife, counterfeit goods and currency, human organs, small arms, diamonds and coloured gemstones, oil, timber, fish, art and cultural property, and gold. While the scope of this paper is quite impressive, it looks at all the above phenomena in a rather uncritical manner. It can nevertheless be a useful source for current views and estimates of transnational crimes.

Events & Announcements

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WATER SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Recent publications

Wetlands contribute in diverse ways to the livelihoods of millions of people. They are often inextricably linked to agricultural production systems. The environmental impact of wetland agriculture can have profound social and economic repercussions for people dependent on ecosystem services other than those provided directly by agriculture. This report highlights the value of wetland agriculture for poverty reduction as well as the need for more systematic planning that takes into account trade-offs in the multiple services that wetlands provide.

This report outlines ways in which the water crisis in the Middle East can be transformed into an opportunity for a new form of peace. It argues for the need to adopt a comprehensive approach and presents a roadmap for action beginning with efficient internal management, storage and distribution; the establishment of a Cooperation Council for Water Resources for Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey; and the launch of a high-level Confidence Building Initiative between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

The report analyses key political events and their potential impact on Nile cooperation, within the framework of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), with a specific focus on the referendum in Southern Sudan that was held on 9 January 2011. One of the primary recommendations is for the international community to consider using the post-referendum process to strengthen development and cooperation. Such an analysis of political events provides input to further improve the political economy of water in the Nile basin.

Events & Announcements

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You are free to publish this material in its entirety or only in part in your newspapers, wire services, internet-based information networks and newsletters and you may use the information in your radio-TV discussions or as a basis for discussion in different fora, provided full credit is given to the author(s) and the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Kindly inform the publisher (NTS_Centre@ntu.edu.sg) and provide details of when and where the publication was used.

About the Centre:

The Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies was inaugurated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan in May 2008. The Centre maintains research in the fields of Food Security, Climate Change, Energy Security, Health Security as well as Internal and Cross-Border Conflict. It produces policy-relevant analyses aimed at furthering awareness and building capacity to address NTS issues and challenges in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. The Centre also provides a platform for scholars and policymakers within and outside Asia to discuss and analyse NTS issues in the region.

In 2009, the Centre was chosen by the MacArthur Foundation as a lead institution for the MacArthur Asia Security Initiative, to develop policy research capacity and recommend policies on the critical security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific.

The Centre is also a founding member and the Secretariat for the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia). More information on the Centre can be found at www.rsis.edu.sg/nts.


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