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NTS Bulletin

NTS Bulletin October 2013

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NTS VIEWPOINT

Can Indonesia advance the peace process in Mindanao?

By Margareth Sembiring

In light of the recent violence that shook Zamboanga city in Mindanao in the southern Philippines, Indonesia’s offer to act as a peace broker between Manila and the Misuari-led Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) deserves some attention. What can Indonesia contribute to the peace process in Mindanao?

Indonesia certainly has the credentials. Operating under the peace framework of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), it facilitated peace negotiations between the Philippine government and the MNLF in the 1990s. After almost four years of talks, a peace agreement was reached in 1996. Indonesia had also deployed military observers to the region between 1994 and 2002. Also, its de-facto leadership in ASEAN and its current chairmanship of the OIC Peace Committee for Southern Philippines lend it further credibility.

However, brokering peace in Mindanao will not be easy. The 1996 agreement is neither the first nor the only peace accord ever attempted. In fact, various administrations have tried to make peace deals with rebel groups in the area. In 1976, the government and the MNLF signed the Tripoli Agreement, with the OIC playing a mediating role. Another agreement was reached in 1987 on the creation of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). In 2001, Malaysia and Libya played major roles in negotiations that resulted in a unity agreement between the MNLF and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), another rebel group. In 2008, the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain between the Philippine government and the MILF gained some traction but was ultimately ruled unconstitutional by the Philippine Supreme Court.

All of these peace accords subsequently failed for various reasons. The 1996 agreement, for example, frayed due to growing dissatisfaction over Nur Misuari’s bad management of the ARMM and a lack of a sense of ownership by tribal communities and non-Muslims who had been largely left out of the negotiation process. As peace has generally been elusive, the signing of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro between the Aquino administration and the MILF in October 2012 was viewed with notable trepidation. The recent standoff in Zamboanga was therefore not completely unexpected.

Conflicts in Mindanao also involve a number of rebel groups. The MNLF was dominant in the early days, but its influence dwindled following a leadership rift that resulted in the establishment of the MILF in 1978 and the Abu Sayyaf in 1991. The attack in Zamboanga was launched by another breakaway faction of the MNLF, led by its very own founder Nur Misuari.

The proliferation of rebel groups undoubtedly poses a hurdle to a peace settlement. Regardless of attempts at inclusive approaches, the presence of multiple groups with different interests increases the probability of dissatisfaction and disagreements. The sustainability of peace agreements is therefore precarious, as disgruntled groups can easily jeopardise the whole effort by resorting to violence.

Against this backdrop, Indonesia’s reliance on its political leverage in ASEAN and the OIC must be buttressed with an excellent understanding of the real dynamics between the different rebel groups. Encouraging other states and private actors to engage with these groups may enhance the capacity to fully understand the sources of their grievances.

At its core, it is imperative for mediators to be able to effectively influence rebel groups to want to compromise on their demands and truly desire sustained peace. This would be key to Indonesia’s success in initiating fresh peace talks in Mindanao.

Margareth Sembiring is Research Analyst with the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

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CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND NATURAL DISASTERS

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report suggests ways to insert ecosystems as a factor in existing modes of environmental and social impact assessments. This is an important effort as ecosystem services are to a large extent still unaccounted for in impact assessments, even while ecosystem services may have significant implications for a project, both in the immediate and the long term.

This brief highlights how an excess supply of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) credits can pose several challenges to the effectiveness of the REDD+ scheme, and that this will have implications for activities that are geared towards bringing about multiple social and environmental benefits.

This book chapter examines the complex links between trade and the environment with a focus on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), a free trade agreement that incorporates socioeconomic and environmental concerns, areas conventionally ignored in trade negotiations.

Events & Announcements

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ENERGY AND HUMAN SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Although many countries in the Asia-Pacific have significantly improved electricity coverage, alternatives such as off-grid microhydro systems, solar home systems, and micro-grids can be further utilised to reduce energy poverty. There are however various barriers – technical, economic and financial, political and institutional, social and cultural – that would have to be overcome. To address these, the report recommends engaging development partners to help improve energy access for the poor, adopting bottom-up approaches and creating a knowledge hub in the Asia-Pacific.

This publication suggests several principles for renewable-energy development in Southeast Asia, including: enhancing energy efficiency and equity, developing decentralised energy systems and large-scale renewables-generated electricity, optimising power grids to support renewables, and developing ‘smart’ energy grids using information and communications technology.

Events & Announcements

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FOOD SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This paper suggests that conventional thinking (the ‘dominant doctrine’) on managing price instability is flawed. A review of the literature shows that the doctrine underestimates: (1) the magnitude of the price instability generated by grain markets; (2) the degree to which farmers and consumers in developing countries are exposed to this instability; and (3) the resulting effects on welfare. Given this, there is a need to be re-examine the efficacy of current approaches, strategies and instruments used to address price instability.

This report highlights the need to reduce poverty and ensure the sustainability of global food systems. It analyses the relationship between poverty, nutrition and access to food; and examines competing demands on available resources and ways to boost productivity amid changing demand and supply. It then provides regional- and national-level policy recommendations for addressing challenges related to food security.

According to this report, simply tweaking the existing agricultural system will not be enough to ensure food security. What is called for is a better understanding of the multi-functionality of agriculture, its pivotal importance for pro-poor rural development and the significant role it can play in dealing with resource scarcities and in mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Events & Announcements

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HEALTH SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report argues that ensuring the protection of migrant rights is advantageous for public health. In line with this, it examines both the impact of the process of migrating on the health of migrants and the human rights instruments that provide protection for migrants irrespective of their legal status. The report goes on to explore the possibilities of harmonising the governance of migration with human rights standards.

This article argues that the Doha Development Agenda is not neutral with regard to the state’s capacity to provide better health outcomes or the individual’s capacity to afford improvements in healthcare. It further argues the need for the global health community to be involved in trade negotiations to ensure that the fiscal weakness of developing countries is not exploited in bilateral arenas.

Events & Announcements

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INTERNAL AND CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This article explores how interactions between the UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT) and local actors have prompted readjustments in peacebuilding, so as to better adapt to local conditions and thus build sustainable peace.

This issue focuses on the controversies over immigration detention across the world. Articles in this issue examine the realities and human rights conditions in detention centres in various countries and they suggest alternative approaches that could help improve the situation.

Events & Announcements

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TRANSNATIONAL CRIME

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This paper outlines cooperation efforts at the regional level in ASEAN to counter serious cross-border cyber threats, and considers whether more might be done to develop a comprehensive approach to cybersecurity in the region. It concludes with several recommendations to create a resilient regional cybersecurity regime.

According to this survey, the total global cost of cybercrimes against consumers in 2013 amounted to USD113 billion. The average cost per victim was USD298, a 50 per cent increase from 2012. The cost was highest, USD38 billion, for the US, followed by China with USD37 billion. The report also notes that there are 378 million victims each year, with those from Russia, China and South Africa among the most affected.

This report focuses on small arms and armed violence outside war zones, with chapters on organised crime and gang violence, the use of firearms in intimate partner violence, and violent land disputes. It also relays new findings on illicit weapons recovered in Mexico and the Philippines, the prices of arms and ammunition in illicit markets in Lebanon, Pakistan and Somalia, and the impacts of improvised explosive devices on civilians worldwide.

Events & Announcements

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WATER SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

Resource flows to support management of transboundary waters in Africa has increased since 2007. However, they still represent less than 1 per cent of Official Development Assistance spending in 2011. This report therefore recommends that the donor community work together with African basin organisations, so that there can be a more coherent, concerted and equitable approach to financing the management of shared water, one that complements initiatives already funded by basin member states.

This report examines the possibility of additional subsurface storage of water in a key part of the Syrdarya river basin, the Fergana Valley. The valley experiences water shortage in the summer months, and excess water in winter. Given this situation, the report suggests that managed aquifer recharge (MAR) could be helpful in meeting water demand.

Events & Announcements

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You are free to publish this material in its entirety or only in part in your newspapers, wire services, internet-based information networks and newsletters and you may use the information in your radio-TV discussions or as a basis for discussion in different fora, provided full credit is given to the author(s) and the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Kindly inform the publisher (NTS_Centre@ntu.edu.sg) and provide details of when and where the publication was used.

About the Centre:

The Centre for NTS Studies, based in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), was inaugurated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan in May 2008. The Centre maintains research in the fields of Climate Change, Food Security, Energy Security, Health Security, as well as Internal and Cross Border Conflict. It produces policy-relevant analyses aimed at furthering awareness and building capacity to address NTS issues and challenges in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. The Centre also provides a platform for scholars and policymakers within and outside Asia to discuss and analyse NTS issues in the region.

The Centre is the Coordinator of the ASEAN-Canada Research Partnership (2012–2015) supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. It also serves as the Secretariat of the initiative.

In 2009, the Centre was chosen by the MacArthur Foundation as a lead institution for its three-year Asia Security Initiative (2009–2012), to develop policy research capacity and recommend policies on the critical security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific. It is also a founding member and the Secretariat for the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia).

More information on the Centre can be found at www.rsis.edu.sg/nts.


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