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NTS Bulletin

NTS Bulletin August 2013

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NTS VIEWPOINT

Post-Arab Spring: Political transitions in retreat?

By Mely Caballero-Anthony

A recent cover of the Economist magazine asked: ‘Has the Arab Spring failed?’ More questions along this line will certainly come as the international community follows closely the political developments in the Arab world. Already, many analysts and pundits are wondering how the celebrated Arab Spring of 2011 that led to the breathtaking end of dictatorial regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen could have gone awry.

The rapid descent into political strife and turbulence in these states has rocked the once placid region, with unimaginable violence recently breaking out in Egypt. While nothing compares with the carnage that had been seen in Libya – itself under pressure for a regime change – the turn of events has led many to question the wisdom of the democratic transformations that are taking place in these states. As Egypt’s re-instated military regime struggles to keep order and pull the country back from the precipice of civil war, how do we make sense of these unfolding narratives of the Arab world? And what does this mean for Southeast Asia’s own story of political transitions?

Since the mid-1970s, Southeast Asia has had its own chequered experience of political transitions. From the Philippines’ long and arduous journey to democracy in the early 1980s to Myanmar’s breathtaking democratic reforms after decades under a military junta, the common thread is that transitions are inherently fragile, fraught with difficult challenges and would therefore need to be properly nurtured until democratic processes are consolidated.

Political ‘transitologists’ like Andreas Schedler and Guillermo O’Donnell, writing about the Latin American experience, have pointed out that while dozens of Third World countries went ‘democratic’ between 1980 and 2000, only a few were able to consolidate that status. Most either slid back into autocratic modes of governance or got stuck in the so-called ‘half-way’ status. Similar studies have shown that democratic consolidation depends on an array of factors. Pressures by domestic and external parties to allow citizens greater political participation are one part of the equation. Also significant are a gamut of domestic factors affecting political outcomes, including level of economic development, quality of political leadership, nature of elite bargaining, political institutions and even political culture.

Beyond elections, there is the difficult task of getting the new players that have entered the political arena to work together and achieve some kind of a consensus that democracy is the only game in town. Instead of gaining exclusive hold on power, the moves now have to be about developing democratic structures and norms that allow for strong political institutions underpinned by respect for the rule of law. Also imperative is building a strong economy that can help to engender more inclusive and empowered communities. More importantly, there must be the realisation that political transitions require time and forbearance in the midst of urgent pressures and demands to meet people’s expectations. Without these being in play, achieving the lofty goal of a democratic society that works for the common good becomes a gargantuan task.

The unfolding events in the Arab world compel states and societies that have gone through or are still undergoing political transition to appreciate the often complex nature of the process. As history has shown, the road to democratisation is paved with high expectations, and numerous challenges. The latest narrative of political transition suggests that Southeast Asia would do well to help the region’s democratising states strengthen their institutions and their economies – lest they too falter like the many that have travelled the same route.

Mely Caballero-Anthony is Associate Professor and Head of the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. She is lead writer and editor of Political Change, Democratic Transitions and Security in Southeast Asia (Routledge, 2010).

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CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND NATURAL DISASTERS

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report identifies international trade opportunities in key economic sectors associated with the transition to a green economy; and examines the policies and measures that may facilitate, or overcome hindrances to, such opportunities. It aims to assist governments, the private sector and other stakeholders to build capacity to take advantage of sustainable trade opportunities at the national, regional or international level.

Given that critical facilities such as hospitals play a crucial role in the socioeconomic and psychological recovery of a population after a disaster, this article assesses the preparedness levels of hospitals in Japan. The results show that the majority of the respondent hospitals exhibit functional preparedness, which is useful during the emergency period of a disaster. However, the other three pillars – structural, non-structural and human resources preparedness – need to be strengthened.

This article identifies the ways in which rights enshrined in the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child are undermined by sudden climate change events as well as by the gradual consequences of climate change. It shifts the perspective on how we address climate change consequences: from human impacts to human-rights violations.

Events & Announcements

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ENERGY AND HUMAN SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This document reports that investment in renewable energy and fuels (including small hydroelectric projects) in 2012 was 12 per cent lower than in 2011. Investment in developed countries declined 29 per cent (it increased by 19 per cent in developing countries). Uncertainty on renewable energy policies in the main developed economies was a major factor; substantial decrease in cost of solar energy also contributed to the lower figures. The report notes that budget allocations for fossil-fuel energy remain enormous.

The report states that current world carbon dioxide emissions exceed the level required to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius. Promoting energy efficiency, minimising use and construction of coal-fired power generators, reducing methane emissions from upstream petroleum production, and expediting cuts in fuel subsidies are key to achieving the target. The report argues that it would be more cost-effective to mainstream climate policies in the energy system and invest in low-carbon infrastructures now rather than at a later stage.

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FOOD SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This study looks at the impact of farm-level corruption on households’ food security using survey data collected from 210 Bangladeshi rice farmers. Results confirm that the cost of corruption adversely affects the calorie consumption of households. The marginal effect of corruption is higher for low-expenditure households compared with high-expenditure households.

The report looks at the role of smallholders in achieving food security and balance in the ecosystem. Smallholders are a neglected sector of the global agricultural community despite the fact that their productivity not only benefits themselves but also the communities they are part of. With their intimate knowledge of local conditions, they are crucial to efforts to make agriculture more sustainable and equitable.

Given increased food market volatility, governments are paying greater attention to production forecasts. This study presents a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops. Results indicate that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26 to 33 per cent) of the harvested area can reliably be predicted if climate forecasts are near perfect.

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HEALTH SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

An understanding of global population movements particularly the annual mass pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia, the epicentre of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), is critical to efforts to mitigate a potential pandemic in the broader Middle East. Insights on such movements could help guide anticipatory MERS coronavirus surveillance and inform plans to increase public health preparedness.

This article presents an analysis of the funding for tuberculosis from 2002 to 2011. It emphasises the increasing ability of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to fund tuberculosis treatments, but notes that donor financing amounting to USD1.6–2.3 billion each year is needed to meet 2015 goals in other countries.

Events & Announcements

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INTERNAL AND CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This article explores the prospects for the current conflict in Southern Thailand to serve as a catalyst for security sector reform in the country. It reviews the changes in the Thai security sector and highlights the challenges faced by the sector. It also examines the differences between the current conflict in the country’s south and the communist insurgency of past decades, and the implications for security sector governance in Thailand.

This article notes that structural and political factors constrain the efficacy of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in promoting international justice and peace. Despite this, the ICC still has the potential to achieve the aims of ending impunity and promoting peace. Attaining such aims would depend on a range of factors, from its institutional capacity to the level of support from the international community.

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TRANSNATIONAL CRIME

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This policy paper addresses the critical need for greater understanding of how the Indonesian legal system is dealing with people smuggling. It argues that any efforts to increase the scope and depth of cooperation between Australia and Indonesia must take into account the progress made by law enforcement agencies in prosecuting people smugglers in Indonesian courts, as well as the challenges they confront.

This report provides a brief analysis of 13 forms of human trafficking in India, including trafficking of organs, forced marriages and adoption rackets, highlighting broad trends across the country. In addition, it identifies areas that require attention and concerted action to strengthen services for survivors of trafficking, such as the provision of special juvenile police units and victim shelters.

Events & Announcements

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WATER SECURITY

News & Commentaries

Selected Publications

This report argues that droughts could devastate food production in England by the 2020s. Without action, increasingly hot and dry summers may mean farmers that would be hit by shortfalls in the amount of water needed for crop production. The report also warns that current farming practices may be allowing the country’s richest soils to be washed or blown away.

This report outlines a framework for assessing the effectiveness of a range of water storage options in the Volta Basin and the upstream (Ethiopian) portion of the Blue Nile Basin. The approach relies on several broad criteria underpinned by water storage-specific metrics. The method links biophysical and demographic elements of storage and, because it is linked to climate parameters, it provides a basis for assessment within the context of climate change.

This report describes several key elements of global water governance, including the conceptual frameworks and policy priorities developed to address major water-related challenges, and the organisations and organisational networks that conceive of and/or implement those conceptual frameworks and priorities. It also identifies key deficiencies in global water governance and provides recommendations for how governance can be improved to better address the major water concerns of the 21st century.

Events & Announcements

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You are free to publish this material in its entirety or only in part in your newspapers, wire services, internet-based information networks and newsletters and you may use the information in your radio-TV discussions or as a basis for discussion in different fora, provided full credit is given to the author(s) and the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Kindly inform the publisher (NTS_Centre@ntu.edu.sg) and provide details of when and where the publication was used.

About the Centre:

The Centre for NTS Studies, based in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), was inaugurated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan in May 2008. The Centre maintains research in the fields of Climate Change, Food Security, Energy Security, Health Security, as well as Internal and Cross Border Conflict. It produces policy-relevant analyses aimed at furthering awareness and building capacity to address NTS issues and challenges in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. The Centre also provides a platform for scholars and policymakers within and outside Asia to discuss and analyse NTS issues in the region.

The Centre is the Coordinator of the ASEAN-Canada Research Partnership (2012–2015) supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. It also serves as the Secretariat of the initiative.

In 2009, the Centre was chosen by the MacArthur Foundation as a lead institution for its three-year Asia Security Initiative (2009–2012), to develop policy research capacity and recommend policies on the critical security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific. It is also a founding member and the Secretariat for the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia).

More information on the Centre can be found at www.rsis.edu.sg/nts.


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